The Elevating Eighteen
Today's quote, courtesy of Benjamin Franklin: "Little strokes fell great oaks."
Just five weeks ago, things looked grim for America’s democracy. How things have changed! Kamala Harris has been flat-out remarkable. After swiftly locking up the nomination, her Milwaukee kick-off speech gave me goosebumps. Her unexpected choice of Tim Walz was inspired. Her Convention speech was one for the ages.
Moneyball Overview: These Monday emails suggest ways you can get the most bang-for-your-buck in donations affecting the Presidency, control of the U.S. Congress, and election integrity. Pro-democracy Moneyball, based on a few core principles:
Winnability matters. Sure, we’d love to hold the WV Senate seat, but Jim Justice will win by 30 points. Avoid lop-sided races.
Timing matters. Early dollars to high-profile campaigns are valuable (e.g., staff hires, data). But late dollars? Before the 2022 midterms, PA’s John Fetterman was running nationwide World Series ads. Ugh! In 2020, most high-profile U.S. Senate campaigns ended with millions of unspent dollars. Double ugh!
Incremental impact matters. With ten weeks to go, visualize your $’s as the last funds coming to a campaign. Focus on underfunded candidates where your $’s can tip the scales and boost pro-democracy candidates up and down the ballot.
Shifts matter. Six weeks ago, our only path was a low-likelihood sweep of MI, WI, and PA. Now, AZ, NV, NC, and GA are in play. More choices elevate the importance of moneyball.
This Week’s Recommendation: Democracy entrepreneur Zak Malamed has impeccable instincts, impressive execution skills, and a winning track record. His The Next 50 initiative has already launched a wave of pro-democracy rising stars. To help us with 2024 moneyball, he’s curated The Elevating Eighteen, a group of inspiring down-ballot swing-state candidates whose underfunded campaigns will:
Make immediate, effective use of your $’s to GOTV
Elevate the prospects of Harris/Walz and U.S. Senate and House candidates
Affect state-level control over election integrity in 2024, and beyond.
You might say, “Why the hell donate to candidates I’ve never heard of?” Well, your funding will help them mobilize thousands of voters, in states where the Presidential election may be decided by a few-thousand votes. They’ll draw incremental voters who elevate Harris/Walz, a dozen U.S. House candidates, and five U.S. Senate candidates. So step up and make this moneyball donation, which will be allocated across races pivotal to democracy’s future.
One final note on The Elevating Eighteen. While Democrats chase the shiny penny, anti-democracy forces have played the long game. Effectively. Supporting these 18 candidates is a strategic investment in democracy’s future. The Brennan Center's eye-opening How Congressional Maps Could Change in 2030 report projects that CA, NY, IL, PA, and MI stand to lose 11 U.S. House members (and Presidential electors!), with nine shifting to TX, FL, NC, and GA. So support The Elevating Eighteen!
Ted (tdintersmith@gmail.com)
Recommendations from Earlier Weeks: