Go Figure

Quote of the day, courtesy of H.G. Wells, “Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write.”

About these notes: Always Monday, short, and free. About issues determining the future of civil society. At times, interesting. Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more.

This week, numbers are on my mind.

For starters, I’m hard at work launching my new book Aftermath, due out March 24th. It lays out — with words, not equations — the powerful, fascinating math ideas that rule our lives. Math you desperately need to understand, unlike the blizzard of high-school math you never use. Check out the book’s landing page, with early endorsements. It will change how you view math. And maybe life.

Two Mondays ago, my note was about creating a statistic to determine which nation ‘won’ the Winter Olympics. This year, tiny Norway (population 5.6 million) broke all records. Their key to success? With youth sports, Norway treats children as children, not miniature adults. All kids — not just the rich — have access to high-quality coaching and facilities. Focus on joy, not burnout competition. Much, much, much to learn from Norway about youth sports and education.

Some very different numbers from a recent NYT story. Prediction markets currently give Gavin Newsom a 30% chance of being the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee. The next tier includes AOC, Mayor Pete, and Kamala. A dozen impressive moderates lag, divvying up centrist support. Yes, it’s early, and lots will change. But in a crowded-field primary with few mostly-activist voters, a far-left candidate can easily win the plurality. Voila — nominate a candidate who gets crushed in the general election. If the Dems are serious about winning, they need to adopt ranked-choice voting for these primaries.

And speaking of presidential elections, take a look at these numbers:

Evangelical Christian voters are deeply committed to their faith, yet they vote in droves for a man who makes a daily mockery of the teachings of Jesus. Why? For five decades, wealthy funders have cynically poured money into “Moral Majority” campaigns. As ‘founding father’ Richard Viguerie explained, “The abortion issue is the door through which many people came into conservative politics. But once they were in the room, they stayed for everything else.” For funders, the ‘everything else’ is low taxes and deregulation.

History offers lessons. The Sunday before the pivotal South Carolina Republican primary in the year 2000, George W. Bush operatives placed flyers under the windshield wipers of cars parked at evangelical churches. False claims that rival John McCain had fathered an illegitimate Black child. Shameless, but effective.

Imagine that on Sunday, November 1, 2026, truthful flyers are tucked under the windshield wipers of cars parked at evangelical churches. Take Maine as an example. Christian voters would see a flyer like this two days before a midterm election that decides a crucial U.S. Senate and House seat:

The Epstein Files are a red line for many people of faith. If this issue is front-of-mind on election day, some will vote for a Democrat. Or stay home. Maybe there’s a groundswell of write-in votes for ‘Jesus.’

Let’s do the math on costs. Maine has about 250,000 Evangelical Christian voters attending 750 churches. Assume print costs of $0.25/flyer and another $1/flyer to distribute to 100,000 cars. That’s about $150K — less than 0.25% of what Democratic candidates and PACs will spend in Maine on ineffective media buys. A drop in the bucket that could ‘deliver us from evil.’

Nervously,

Ted