BlueWall Moneyball
"The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do." - Michael Porter
Between now and the election, I’ll be sending out a weekly “Moneyball Monday” note recommending high-leverage ways your dollars can protect our democracy. I won’t be tactful or polite. At this late stage of the election cycle, we need to support high-bang-for-your-buck initiatives, and avoid dead ends.
I’ve been through many Democratic Party Groundhog Days — chase the shiny penny, overfund a few high-profile campaigns, and complain. So I’ll start with the essence of strategy – what not to do. Then, I’ll offer this week’s moneyball suggestion for protecting our democracy.
On coming Mondays, you’ll get a brief email with overall commentary and a moneyball recommendation or two. Feel free to forward this email to others. And let me know of your favorite democracy-preserving initiative.
The Presidential Ticket Campaign: The Harris/Walz ticket has every chance of turning back Trump, and we need them to win. The energy is palpable, and donations are pouring in. Maybe toss in a few bucks to be part of this, upping their small-donor count. But know this – your incremental dollars will go to useless, expensive TV ads. You can do better. Democracy-protecting Impact: ZERO.
U.S. Senate Candidate Campaigns: To retain control of the U.S. Senate, Democrats need to win all eight close races — Montana, Ohio, Nevada, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. Not impossible with the Harris/Walz ticket.
Early funds matter to these campaigns; congrats if you gave months ago. But now, your donations won’t matter. The ‘shiny penny’ Jon Tester race, for example, already has more than $60 million on hand for ad buys in tiny Montana ($100 per voter). It’s quite possibly your contribution won’t be spent, as happened in numerous 2020 U.S. Senate races. Maine’s Sara Gideon, for example, raised $75 million, of which $14.8 million went unspent. Democracy-protecting Impact: ZERO.
U.S. House Race Campaigns: We have a decent chance of turning the House blue, needing to win 14 out of 22 toss-up races. Very doable with our new ticket. But funding one-off campaigns has marginal impact at this late stage. Democracy-protecting Impact: MINIMAL.
State Democratic Parties: These organizations do day-in/day-out GOTV work, as this video explains. They are underfunded, get minuscule help from the DNC, and will make great use of your $’s. Donations to Michigan, Wisconsin, and/or Pennsylvania will:
Help Harris/Walz in must-win states,
Help three close U.S. Senate races,
Help eight close U.S. House races, and
Help state-level races (critical if their state’s Presidential vote is contested).
Moneyball to support the Blue Wall. Democracy-protecting Impact: HIGH.
For a large donations, contact me for ways to avoid the 3.9% ActBlue fee. Also, consider supporting state parties in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Stacey Abrams’ Fair Fight in Georgia. AZ and NV have jump-ball Senate seats, the NC Governor’s race is important, and Georgia is ground-zero for Trump’s relentless efforts to subvert the will of voters.
More next Monday!
Ted